4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 31

Buffalo Bills 7 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.44 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model