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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 75

Tennessee Titans 7 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(5:18) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 52 yards to BUF 23, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.39 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 32, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model