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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 55

Tennessee Titans 7 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(12:53) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.89 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 55, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model