Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 77

Tennessee Titans 7 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(9:27) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 63 yards to BUF 14, Center-46-M.Cox. 80-J.Crowder to BUF 29 for 15 yards (42-J.Jones). PENALTY on TEN-30-T.Avery, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 29.

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.48 EP
66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 77, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model