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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 52

Buffalo Bills 24 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(8:33) 8-S.Martin punts 38 yards to TEN 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 18-K.Philips MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BUF-53-T.Dodson at TEN 20. 53-T.Dodson ran ob at TEN 20 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.04 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 52, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.64 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model