Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 93

Buffalo Bills 41 – Tennessee Titans 7

(14:51) 8-S.Martin punts 56 yards to TEN 37, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 37-A.Hooker MUFFS catch, recovered by TEN-30-T.Avery at TEN 36.

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.37 EP
53% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 93, worth -5.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model