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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 61

Buffalo Bills 41 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 8-S.Martin punts 50 yards to TEN 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.39 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 20, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model