4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 81

Tennessee Titans 7 – Buffalo Bills 41

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 64 yards to BUF 17, Center-46-M.Cox. 80-J.Crowder to BUF 33 for 16 yards (85-C.Okonkwo, 42-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.04 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 81, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 38, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP