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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Buffalo Bills
4th & 1 at the 25
Buffalo Bills 41 – Tennessee Titans 7
What Actually Happened
(3:43) 28-J.Cook right guard to TEN 23 for 2 yards (30-T.Avery).
The Three Options
GO
+2.48 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.94 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth -0.97 EP
KICK
+1.51 EP
- 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
- 15% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT
-0.43 EP
- Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
