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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 2

Tennessee Titans 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(5:27) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.39 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 2, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model