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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 31

Buffalo Bills 7 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(1:25) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 20-Z.Moss (41-Z.Cunningham).

The Three Options

GO +2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.00 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 31, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT +0.42 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model