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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Detroit Lions
4th & 5 at the 30
Detroit Lions 12 – Washington Commanders 0
What Actually Happened
(13:51) 19-A.Seibert 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
The Three Options
GO
+1.16 EP
-
42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.43 EP
- 58% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.23 EP
KICK
+1.30 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
- 20% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT
-0.01 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
