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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 68

Washington Commanders 0 – Detroit Lions 15

What Actually Happened

(12:18) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to DET 23, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.65 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 68, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 26, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model