Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 63

Washington Commanders 0 – Detroit Lions 22

(4:20) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to DET 18, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.62 EP
69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 63, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model