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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 76

Detroit Lions 22 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(2:51) 3-J.Fox punts 56 yards to WAS 20, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.17 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model