Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 66

Washington Commanders 0 – Detroit Lions 22

What Actually Happened

(:39) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to DET 20, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond. Penalty on DET-57-A.Pittman, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.34 EP
57% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 66, worth -3.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model