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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 80

Detroit Lions 22 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(:15) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to WAS 35, Center-47-S.Daly. 15-D.Milne to WAS 46 for 11 yards (87-Q.Cephus).

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.29 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 80, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 37, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model