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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 59

Detroit Lions 22 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(7:27) 3-J.Fox punts 53 yards to WAS 6, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.28 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 59, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP