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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 62

Washington Commanders 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(11:43) 5-T.Way punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.88 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 62, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 21, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model