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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 33

Detroit Lions 36 – Washington Commanders 27

What Actually Happened

(1:38) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 14-A.St. Brown (29-K.Fuller).

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +1.12 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 43, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.05 EP