Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 83

Washington Commanders 0 – Detroit Lions 3

(6:32) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to DET 35, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 11-K.Raymond to DET 43 for 8 yards (39-J.Reaves).

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.52 EP
61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 83, worth -5.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model