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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 80

Washington Commanders 0 – Detroit Lions 12

What Actually Happened

(:10) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to DET 42, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.91 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 80, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 37, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model