4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 41

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(4:39) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 11-M.Goodwin pushed ob at ATL 18 for 23 yards (29-C.Hayward).

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.65 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 41, worth -1.92 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model