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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 18 at the 36

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(10:07) 7-Y.Koo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.74 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 36, worth -2.01 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model