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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 55

Seattle Seahawks 23 – Atlanta Falcons 27

What Actually Happened

(11:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to ATL 4, Center-46-C.Tinker. 35-A.Williams pushed ob at ATL 10 for 6 yards (19-P.Hart; 24-I.Dunn).

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.09 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 55, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model