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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 18 at the 38

Seattle Seahawks 23 – Atlanta Falcons 27

What Actually Happened

(1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right intended for 16-T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Grant at ATL 6. 27-R.Grant to ATL 18 for 12 yards.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
What Happened
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +3.80 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 47, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP