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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 45

Buffalo Bills 14 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(3:55) 8-S.Martin punts 31 yards to MIA 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.39 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 45, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model