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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 54

Miami Dolphins 14 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(13:13) 4-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to BUF 2, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-27-K.Crossen.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.23 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 54, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 16, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model