4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 11

Buffalo Bills 14 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 2-T.Bass 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 22, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model