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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 68

Miami Dolphins 14 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 4-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to BUF 9, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 80-J.Crowder MUFFS catch, and recovers at BUF 8. 80-J.Crowder to BUF 20 for 12 yards (14-T.Sherfield; 43-A.Van Ginkel).

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.72 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 68, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 26, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP