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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 99

Miami Dolphins 21 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(1:37) 4-T.Morstead punt is BLOCKED, Center-44-B.Ferguson, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. The punt was not blocked, it deflected off an offensive player.

The Three Options

GO -3.45 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.50 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 99, worth -5.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 53, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model