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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 45

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(3:34) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to DET 39 for 6 yards (34-A.Anzalone).

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.54 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 45, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model