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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 72

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 14-R.Wright punts 51 yards to DET 21, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 32 for 11 yards (82-B.Ellefson).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.17 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 72, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 30, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model