4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 46

Detroit Lions 14 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(10:41) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 8-J.Reynolds pushed ob at MIN 30 for 16 yards (44-J.Metellus).

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.01 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 13, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model