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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 73

Detroit Lions 24 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(10:47) 3-J.Fox punts 39 yards to MIN 34, Center-47-S.Daly. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 43 for 9 yards (87-Q.Cephus).

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.21 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 73, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 31, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP