4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 53

Minnesota Vikings 21 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(2:36) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 19-A.Thielen [53-C.Harris].

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.93 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 53, worth -1.98 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 15, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model