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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 36

Detroit Lions 24 – Minnesota Vikings 21

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 19-A.Seibert 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +1.15 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 36, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model