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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 32

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(7:12) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown pushed ob at MIN 2 for 30 yards (7-P.Peterson).

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.10 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 32, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
  • 77% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 42, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model