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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 31

Detroit Lions 7 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 67-M.Nelson reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short right to 8-J.Reynolds to MIN 14 for 17 yards (44-J.Metellus).

The Three Options

GO +2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.79 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 31, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 41, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model