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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 42

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:36) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 15-C.Beasley to GB 38 for 4 yards (29-R.Douglas).

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.54 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.92 EP
KICK -0.18 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model