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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 68

Green Bay Packers 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 57 yards to TB 11, Center-56-J.Coco. 1-J.Darden to TB 21 for 10 yards (6-D.Leavitt; 40-T.Galeai).

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 68, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP