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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 80

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(:45) 5-J.Camarda punts 36 yards to GB 44, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-33-K.Young.

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.62 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model