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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 78

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(11:26) 5-J.Camarda punts 58 yards to GB 20, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.14 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 35, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP