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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 72

Green Bay Packers 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(8:54) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 63 yards to TB 9, Center-56-J.Coco. 1-J.Darden ran ob at TB 25 for 16 yards (58-I.McDuffie).

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.37 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP