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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 39

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 11-M.Jones [56-M.Fox].

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.53 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 48, worth -3.23 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model