Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 57

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(10:49) 16-J.Scott punts 42 yards to JAX 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.09 EP
59% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 57, worth -2.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model