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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 11

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 38

What Actually Happened

(:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 1-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
What Happened
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +2.80 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.02 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 22, worth +0.02 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.75 EP