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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 65

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 9-L.Cooke punts 56 yards to LAC 9, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 1-D.Carter to LAC 15 for 6 yards (20-D.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.48 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 23, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP