Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 61

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(13:57) 6-M.Haack punts 53 yards to KC 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 24-S.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by IND-83-K.Granson at KC 4.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.93 EP
55% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 61, worth -3.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model