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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 7

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(7:59) 19-M.Ammendola 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.78 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 7, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP